Skip to main content

The Super SIV? Will it work or are there one too many holes in the dike.


The Super SIV appears to be on it's way to sanitize all the sub-prime CDOs.

Will it work?

Probably Not... Why?





Hole in the Dike #1:

The Chinese and the Japanese aren't buying it anymore as outflows of capital show:

Asian Investors Dumping Treasuries

Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.

Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.


















See that chart above? That's the August data, before they lowered rates!

Hole in the Dike #2:

The worst isn't even here yet! See below for a timeline of when rate resets are going to hit. It starts in January 2007.

















No foreigners want to buy our debt and there are going to be a ton of people defaulting on their mortgages in the coming months. So all that debt, wherever they hide it is going to be worth WHAT Now?? The U.S financial system has suffered an epic mortal blow. The blow is to the credibility of the system is now totally shot. Bernanke is a smart guy and a well trained economist but I don't think he realizes that we are operating in a vastly different economic climate than 20 even 10 years ago where suddenly the U.S isn't the only place to invest anymore. The world has caught up to the U.S in many ways but we aren't anymore cautious.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What's Bernanke going to do during the housing crash?

A Recent NY Times article on the Japanese Housing Bubble got me thinking. Especially this quote: Japanese economists say the United States is not likely to suffer a decline that is as severe or long-lasting as Japan's, because they see a more skilled hand at the tiller of the American economy: the Federal Reserve. Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan, failed to curb the stock and real estate bubbles until mid-1989, when it was too late and prices were sky-high, they said. Translation: It's different this time! Is it really? Let's listen to some words from Mr Bernanke : But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to...
1 comment
Read more

Thinking about ICOs.

The ICO craze is in full swing. Etherium goes from 30 cents to > $300. The Ten-X ICO and others raise millions in no time. The secondary market for it shoots up massively. The two questions I ask in every bubble are:   Where is the money coming from?   How can I monitor that source of money to know when the money is going to stop coming?  My best guess for where the money is coming from in the ICO bubble is China. China is the home of all the big Bitcoin mines and has a cottage industry of schemes to exfiltrate money out of China and into anywhere else. The "money" is also coming out of Bitcoin to some extent and into other crypto currencies due to high transaction fees. What Countries are using crypto currency?  If we look at bitcoin search trends for Bitcoin : We see the U.S is at number 10. And Ethereum, the smart contract cryptocurrency powering the newly hatched ICO world: We see that the U.S is way down the list at number 18. Goo...
Post a Comment
Read more

Where Is The Hyperinflationary Tipping Point?

With all the money printing going on at the Fed, why is the Fed having trouble creating inflation in the economy? One of the reasons is that asset values are rapidly declining. This leads to a collapse in available sources of consumer credit. For instance, now that home values have fallen, home equity lines are not available. Existing lines are gradually being paid down or defaulted on. Fed liquidity programs such as TARP, which swaps cash for mortgage backed securities, is going into equities and not into new loans. It also seems to be about the only liquidity entering the system. The rest of the liquidity sits on the bank balance sheets, unable to find a home in an asset bubble. Bank lending needs an asset bubble to get into the economy because Banks are too conservative to lend like venture capitalists. They only really want to lend against assets, which are all falling in price due to the aftermath of the once great asset bubble. Since banks only want to lend against asset...
Post a Comment
Read more