Skip to main content

The curious case of the Yuan and the Yen

Two curious pieces of news today:

Geithner Says U.S. Examining Ways to Push China on Yuan Rise

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. isn’t satisfied with the pace of yuan gains and is considering ways to urge China to let the currency rise faster.

And

Fed refused to comment on Japan weakening the Yen.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve Bank of New York declined to comment on Japan's intervention in currency markets that has pushed the dollar sharply higher against the yen.


So why are we perfectly happy, or at least neutral, with Japan, the #3 economy, weakening the Yen and are furious at China, the #2 economy, decreasing the value of the Yuan.

This is a good question for any would be political economist to ponder. The treasury is certainly in charge of the political aspects of the dollar's relationship to other currencies. The Fed's political objectives are somewhat murky but assumed to be largely the same as the treasury's.

Let's call this the Asian currency political paradox.

I have my thoughts, which I'll elaborate on in later posts.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Thinking about ICOs.

The ICO craze is in full swing. Etherium goes from 30 cents to > $300. The Ten-X ICO and others raise millions in no time. The secondary market for it shoots up massively. The two questions I ask in every bubble are:

Where is the money coming from?
How can I monitor that source of money to know when the money is going to stop coming?

 My best guess for where the money is coming from in the ICO bubble is China. China is the home of all the big Bitcoin mines and has a cottage industry of schemes to exfiltrate money out of China and into anywhere else. The "money" is also coming out of Bitcoin to some extent and into other crypto currencies due to high transaction fees.


What Countries are using crypto currency?

 If we look at bitcoin search trends for Bitcoin : We see the U.S is at number 10. And Ethereum, the smart contract cryptocurrency powering the newly hatched ICO world: We see that the U.S is way down the list at number 18. Google underreports China of c…

Keeping up to date on China Stock/Economic news

I have been trying to get a daily reading list together so I can more closely follow economic developments in China. I was trying to stay as far away from western viewpoints of China as possible. Reading western news sources is like reading about science in newsweek vs reading china business based and focuses news sources -- which is more like reading the actual technical journal articles.

Ok here's my notes on the topic so far:

http://www.chinaview.cn/business/index.htm

-Decent - basically Xinhua's (Official Chinese News Agency) business section


http://english.gov.cn/service/business/sbw.htm

-brief gov news agency business headlines.


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/bw/bweconomy.html

-Not bad with a lot of original information! for example:
Quote:

"Tax treaty benefits
In this article, we shall analyze the process of adopting a Mauritius company as a holding vehicle. The China-Mauritius tax treaty offers some tax benefits in structuring a tax efficient holding structu…

Why there will be no hyperinflation

I have been reading the inflation/deflation debate for some time now on various parts of the web. The inflationists insist that we will collapse like Wiemar. The deflationists insist that we will collapse like Japan. The memory of the 1970s inflation is strong in many an old gold curmudgeon, so the inflationists seem to be more prevalent. I will in this essay attempt to argue that hyperinflation will not happen if global commodity markets remain priced in dollars. The reason for this is that if inflation increases, the rest of the world will bid commodities up drastically, especially oil, and severely throttle U.S economic growth, leading to a more restrictive monetary policy.



Hyperinflation always happens due to a foreign exchange crisis. The population, sensing a high level of inflation, rushes to change their earnings in for real goods or foreign currency. In the case of Wiemar, or Argentina, the rest of the world is largely unaffected. They see their currencies drastically …